U.S. Voters Favor Congressional Newcomers Over Incumbents

PRINCETON, NJ -- Registered voters are nearly twice as likely to say they would rather vote for a congressional candidate with no prior experience in Congress as to say they would vote for one who has previously served in Congress. This view, however, is not shared by all party groups, as Democrats are slightly more likely to favor a candidate with congressional experience.

These party differences may reflect the fact that Democrats currently hold the majority of seats in Congress, so the more incumbents who are re-elected, presumably the better for the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, only as many as one in four independents or Republicans seem to place a high value on congressional experience this year.

The pro-newcomer point of view has already been apparent in nominating primaries or conventions this election year, as voters have defeated several long-serving senators and House members from both parties.

Because the question asking voters to choose between a candidate who has served and one who has not served in Congress had not been asked prior to the recent May 24-25 USA Today/Gallup poll, it is not clear whether the preference for congressional newcomers is higher or lower than it has been in the past. However, the poll did include two questions Gallup has tracked since the 1992 elections, and the results of these questions reveal that anti-incumbent sentiment is near record highs.

Specifically, 32% of voters say "most members of Congress" deserve re-election, historically one of the lowest levels Gallup has measured. The latest update is, however, a slight improvement from the record-low 28% Gallup measured earlier this year.

Again, this sentiment is not shared across the political spectrum, as 53% of Democrats, compared with 16% of Republicans and 18% of independents, believe most members of Congress should be re-elected this year.

As is usually the case, voters are more charitable when rating their own members of Congress than they are when rating "most members." Whereas 32% of voters say most members deserve re-election, 50% say their own member does. Still, this latter number ranks among the lowest percentages endorsing their own representative for another term that Gallup has measured, just two percentage points above the all-time low of 48% from October 1992.

Party differences are less pronounced when it comes to evaluating one's own representative, as 61% of Democrats, 51% of Republicans, and 40% of independents think their own member of Congress deserves re-election.

Implications

A stronger-than-usual anti-incumbent bias is another challenge for a majority Democratic Party that is trying to minimize the losses usually dealt to the president's party in a midterm election year. Gallup's Daily tracking of registered-voter candidate preferences this year has typically shown Republicans and Democrats tied or the Republicans with a slight lead, either of which would generally predict a strong Republican showing at the polls on Election Day.

That day is still nearly five months away, but typically, voters' attitudes toward incumbents do not change dramatically over the course of an election year. To the extent change has occurred in a given election year, it has usually been toward a more negative rather than a more positive view of incumbents.