PRINCETON, NJ -- Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani would enter as credible players in the 2012 GOP presidential race, should they decide to run. Perry is recognized by 55% of Republicans and has a Positive Intensity Score of 21, while Giuliani is recognized by 86% and has a Positive Intensity Score of 20. Both Positive Intensity Scores are among the highest of any candidate or potential candidate Gallup measures.
Neither Perry nor Giuliani has made an official announcement about running for president, although both have indicated that they are seriously considering it. Perry, governor of Texas since 2000, told an Iowa newspaper that he felt "called" to run. Giuliani, who was the front-runner for the GOP nomination through much of 2007 before losing out to John McCain, has traveled frequently to New Hampshire in recent weeks.
Despite intense media speculation about his presidential plans, far fewer Republicans recognize Perry (55%) than recognize Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and Ron Paul. Perry, however, is already known by as many Republicans nationally as announced candidate Tim Pawlenty, and has higher name recognition than several other candidates who have been hard at work campaigning in recent weeks, including Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, and Jon Huntsman.
Perry's Positive Intensity Score of 21 ties Bachmann's, and is slightly below Cain's 25. Cain continues to generate the most enthusiasm of any candidate tested.
Despite the national exposure Giuliani received as mayor of New York during the difficult days after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, as well as during his 2008 GOP presidential bid, he falls short of having universal name ID among Republicans. His 86% recognition score is nine percentage points lower than that of Palin. Giuliani is, however, recognized by about as many Republicans as know Romney and Gingrich. Giuliani's Positive Intensity Score of 20 puts him one point below Perry and Bachmann.
There has been little change in Gallup's update for the two weeks ending July 17 in the positioning of the other potential GOP candidates Gallup measures. Palin's and Romney's Positive Intensity Scores are below those of Cain, Bachmann, Perry, and Giuliani, with Santorum's and Pawlenty's scores well below those. Huntsman's position among Republicans has also not changed; he appears stuck with a relatively low recognition score of 41%, and his Positive Intensity Score of 2 is still among the lowest of any candidate or potential candidate tested.
This week's Gallup tracking for the first time includes measures of two other announced candidates -- Michigan Rep. Thad McCotter and Californian Fred Karger. Both have only 10% recognition among Republicans, and neither generates strong interest among that very small group of Republicans who do know them, with Positive Intensity Scores of 5 and -1, respectively.
Bottom Line
In their inaugural appearance in Gallup's weekly GOP candidate tracking, Perry and Giuliani have strongly positive images among Republicans nationwide, with Positive Intensity Scores in the top tier of all candidates and potential candidates Gallup measures. Both men generate slightly more intensely positive responses than Romney, and considerably more positive reactions than several other announced candidates who have been campaigning actively, including Pawlenty and Huntsman.
Perry does have relatively low name recognition among Republicans nationwide, roughly on par with where Bachmann was at the beginning of this year. Bachmann's name recognition has increased significantly since then, however, in contrast to the situations of Pawlenty, Huntsman, Santorum, and Cain, who have not been able to move the needle on name recognition despite vigorous campaigning. It remains to be seen how quickly Perry's name recognition will increase if he officially jumps into the race.
Giuliani does not have a name ID problem; he is as well-known as any candidate or potential candidate tested except for Palin. Giuliani also scores well on Gallup's Positive Intensity measure, meaning that both he and Perry would be formidable factors in the race for the GOP nomination should they make the decision to run.
Overall, Cain, Bachmann, Perry, and Giuliani generate the most positive enthusiasm among Republicans nationwide who recognize them, with Palin and Romney trailing slightly behind.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking July 4-17, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Questions asking about the 14 potential candidates measured in this research were rotated among randomly selected samples of Republicans each night; over the 14-day period, each candidate was rated by a minimum of 1,500 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
For the overall ratings of each potential candidate among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, including recognition scores, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For the Positive Intensity Score for each candidate, the maximum margin of sampling error varies depending on the size of the group recognizing the candidate.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.
