Americans Divided on Repeal of 2010 Healthcare Law

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans divide evenly when asked if they favor (47%) or oppose (44%) a Republican president's repealing the 2010 healthcare law if elected this November. Republicans overwhelmingly favor repeal (87%) and Democrats overwhelmingly oppose it (77%). However, Republicans hold their views much more intensely than Democrats, with 56% of Republicans strongly favoring repeal and 39% of Democrats strongly opposing it.

Thus, a Republican president would have a clear mandate from his own party's supporters to attempt to overturn the law, as all of the Republican candidates have vowed to do if elected. However, such a position may turn off about as many independent voters as it attracts.

Americans are also split in their basic views of whether Congress' passing the law was a good (45%) or a bad thing (44%). This has generally been the case ever since the law was passed, though opinion tilted slightly more positive immediately after its passage and slightly more negative last fall, when Americans' economic confidence was low.

A few provisions of the healthcare law have already gone into effect, though it will not be fully implemented until later this decade, if it survives an upcoming challenge in the U.S. Supreme Court. To date, 7 in 10 Americans say the law has not had an effect on them personally, with about equal proportions saying it has helped (12%) or hurt (16%) them.

Americans are less optimistic that the law will improve their family's healthcare situation in the long run, however. Thirty-eight percent expect the law to make their situation worse, compared with 24% who say better. Thirty-four percent do not expect it to make much difference.

Not surprisingly given their opposition to the law, Republicans hold a dim view of the law's prospects for their own healthcare. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans think the law will make their own healthcare situation worse, compared with 3% saying better. Democrats are fairly evenly split as to whether the law will improve their healthcare situation or not make much difference, while independents do not exhibit much consensus on the law's likely impact.

Americans Do Not Think Individual Mandate Passes Legal Muster

The Supreme Court next month will hear legal challenges to the healthcare law, which are focused on the law's requirement that all Americans purchase health insurance or pay a fine. Americans overwhelmingly believe the "individual mandate," as it is often called, is unconstitutional, by a margin of 72% to 20%.

Even a majority of Democrats, and a majority of those who think the healthcare law is a good thing, believe that provision is unconstitutional.

A series of lower-court rulings have so far disagreed as to whether the provision violates the Constitution.

Implications

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 law has been arguably President Obama's most significant legislative achievement to date. Yet Americans have not shown clear majority support for it, before or after its passage. Rather, they have generally been divided, likely because Republicans' overwhelming opposition has counterbalanced Democrats' overwhelming support for it.

It is not clear that public support for the legislation will increase as long as Republican leaders and rank-and-file Republicans remain steadfastly opposed.

The law's fate remains very much in question even before it is fully implemented, due to legal challenges and some elected officials' desire to work to repeal or otherwise not implement the law.

To date, few Americans report any effect of the law on their own healthcare situation, though that would likely change in the coming years if the law is implemented as planned. If this happens, Americans' opinions could shift, depending on whether the law benefits or harms them personally, and whether they perceive it to improve the broader U.S. healthcare system or to make it worse.