More Than One in Four Dutch Discontent Ahead of Election

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Prior to the March general election in the Netherlands -- Europe's first substantial test this year of rising populist sentiment -- more than one in four Dutch residents (28%) in 2016 lacked confidence in their national government and were less positive about their future than their present situations. Recent Gallup analysis suggests this condition of being "disaffected" and "discouraged" may prove useful in understanding the extent of populist sentiment in a given country.

Breaking down these two metrics, 42% of the Dutch surveyed in 2016 were disaffected with their government, while 38% of the population rated their future lives the same or worse than their current ones. Twenty-eight percent were both disaffected and discouraged, which is on the higher end of percentages since the previous general election in 2012 (24%). Gallup's earlier analysis showed that countries that have been experiencing populist movements tend to have people with lower levels of trust in their government and less optimism for the future.

Gallup measured this percentage of disaffected and discouraged in the Netherlands last year, prior to the second-place finish of populist candidate Geert Wilders in the national election. Wilders ran on a platform that called for the Netherlands' exit from the EU, as well as stringent immigration and refugee policies. Despite its second-place finish in the election, Wilders' "Party for Freedom" gained five seats in the Dutch parliament while incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte's "People's Party for Freedom and Democracy" lost eight seats.

The 28% of Dutch who are disaffected and discouraged ranks among the lower half of the 27 EU countries surveyed. However, the Netherlands is tied for first among EU countries when it comes to the percentage of residents who are less hopeful about the future than the present.

Disaffected and discouraged Dutch are more likely to be out of the workforce and are less likely to have received a four-year college degree. The latter is consistent with previous Gallup research that showed that U.S. adults without a bachelor's degree were more receptive to Donald Trump's populist campaign messaging. However, that research also showed that there is not necessarily a link between being out of the workforce and supporting Trump.

Disaffected, Discouraged Lack Confidence in National Institutions

With "Nexit" having been one of Wilders' central campaign promises, Dutch who are disaffected and discouraged are more than twice as likely to disapprove of EU leadership (68% vs. 29%). Dutch who are disaffected and discouraged are also more likely to lack confidence in national institutions, including the judicial system (66% vs. 19%), financial institutions (76% vs. 41%) and the electoral process (46% vs. 16%). The backlash among this group against the EU and other national institutions is somewhat to be expected, since its members lack confidence in their national government as a whole.

Implications

With populist sentiment and coalitions growing in European countries, the March general elections in the Netherlands were seen as a barometer for populist sentiment throughout the continent. The defeat of Wilders' "Party for Freedom" by the incumbent party may initially seem like a dampening of populist sentiment in Europe.

However, it is more likely that the gain in parliamentary seats for Wilders' party, alongside the increased percentage of disaffected and discouraged Dutch since 2012, puts a greater spotlight on future European elections in 2017. A number of European countries with a significantly higher percentage of disaffected and discouraged citizens than the Netherlands have yet to hold their general elections.

Notably, France, with 43% of the population disaffected and discouraged, will be holding general elections in late April, where according to polls, populist candidate Marine Le Pen is currently deadlocked with liberal candidate Emmanuel Macron in the first round of voting. Results from that election may confirm the weight of populist sentiment throughout Europe. Gallup expects to release an analysis on French optimism and confidence around the April 23 election date.