Americans, in Theory, Think Larger Families Are Ideal

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Despite declining U.S. birth rates since the 2007-2009 recession, Americans' views on ideal family size are moving in the other direction. Currently, 41% of U.S. adults think that families of three or more children is ideal. That is up from 38% in 2013 and 34% in 2011, and is the highest Gallup has seen on this measure since 1997 -- although it is well below the 77% high point in 1945.

While 41% currently say three or more children is ideal, 50% say one or two is best while just 1% say zero. These data broadly align with previous Gallup research finding most U.S. adults aged 18 to 40 hoping to be parents someday, if they are not already.

Americans' views about ideal family size have changed markedly since Gallup first probed the topic in 1936. From then through the late 1960s, more than six in 10 adults thought that having three or more children was ideal, with the figure rising to 77% in 1945, at the end of World War II and start of the Baby Boom.

Gallup documented a particularly abrupt change between 1967 and its next measure in 1971, as the percentage favoring large families fell from 70% to 52%. This may have reflected public fears of a global population explosion, as detailed in the bestselling 1968 book "The Population Bomb." Major societal changes at that time around the role of women may also have been a factor.

Preferences for large families continued to wane through the 1970s and 1980s, spanning three U.S. recessions, and reached a low of 28% in 1986. It has since fluctuated, but reached a recent high of 42% in 1997 amid a booming economy and a low of 33% in 2011 as the country was still recovering from the 2007 to 2009 recession.

The average number of children U.S. adults think is ideal is now 2.7, up slightly from 2.5 in 2007 and 2011.

Meanwhile, U.S. fertility reportedly reached a record-low 60.2 births per 1,000 women in 2017 -- about half its level during the peak Baby Boom year of 1957 -- and followed a fairly steady decline from 69.3 births per 1,000 women in 2007.

Higher Income, College Educated Think Fewer Children Is Ideal

The new poll, conducted June 1-13, finds relatively slight differences in attitudes about ideal family size by gender and age, largely consistent with readings in recent years. The similarity by age, with the youngest and oldest Americans equally likely to believe three or more children is best, is particularly notable given declining birth rates. This may suggest that young people without children may intend to delay starting families, not forego having children altogether.

At the same time, adults with lower income and education levels, as well as Republicans, are more likely than their counterparts to say having three or more children is ideal.

	2007	2011	2013	2018
	%	%	%	%
Men	33	41	36	43
Women	35	43	38	38
18 to 34	44	43	46	45
35 to 54	29	42	36	36
55+	34	40	32	44
Post graduate	31	31	30	36
College grad only	37	26	33	36
Some college	33	33	34	40
No college	34	37	43	46
$75,000 and over	30	33	32	38
$30,000-$74,999	36	44	35	40
Less than $30,000	39	44	43	49
Republicans	42	50	38	45
Independents	29	39	37	42
Democrats	34	35	36	37
Gallup

Desire for Big Families Pushes Average Higher

The increase since 2007 in the average number of children Americans prefer can be explained mainly by an increase in the proportion of adults who think four or more children is ideal -- this rose from 9% in 2007 to 15% today.

Meanwhile, the percentage seeing three children as ideal has been fairly steady near 25%, and there has been no change in the percentage favoring one or no children.

	2007	2011	2013	2018
	%	%	%	%
4 or more children	9	10	13	15
3 children	25	23	25	26
2 children	52	53	48	47
Zero, or 1 child	4	5	5	4
Gallup

Bottom Line

Following a long-term decline in the U.S. birth rate since the Baby Boom era, the drop in U.S. birth rates over the past decade is especially notable because it has persisted long after the 2007-2009 recession ended. Should it continue, the economic implications for the U.S. would be enormous, and intersect with U.S. immigration policy, as the relatively young immigrant population could be vital to maintaining economic growth and keeping the Social Security system viable.

Researchers have explored a variety of economic and cultural reasons for declining birth rates: the expense of having and raising a child, the effect of motherhood on women's incomes, shifting priorities as people progress in their careers, women's lower fertility as they age, and a desire to postpone or avoid the responsibilities of parenthood. While all of these factors may play a role, one thing seems clear from the Gallup data -- Americans, including young people, still embrace the idea of multiple children making for an "ideal" family. Whether they ever strive for that ideal in their own lives is a different question.