Initial Views on Kavanaugh Confirmation Divided

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- By 41% to 37%, Americans want the Senate to vote for, rather than against, the confirmation of federal judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. This four-percentage-point margin is slimmer than any Gallup has measured in its initial read on 10 prior nominees since 1987. On average, the margin in favor of confirming the nominee in these polls has been 23 points, 49% to 26%.

	Date of poll	Vote in favor	Not vote in favor	No opinion
		%	%	%
Brett Kavanaugh	2018 Jul 10-15	41	37	22
Neil Gorsuch	2017 Feb 1-2	45	32	23
Merrick Garland	2016 Mar 18-19	52	29	19
Elena Kagan	2010 May 24-25	46	32	22
Sonia Sotomayor	2009 May 29-31	54	28	19
Samuel Alito	2005 Nov 7-10	50	25	25
Harriet Miers	2005 Oct 13-16	44	36	20
John Roberts	2005 Jul 22-24	59	22	19
Ruth Bader Ginsburg	1993 Jun 18-21	53	14	33
Clarence Thomas	1991 Jul 11-14	52	17	31
Robert Bork	1987 Aug 24-Sep 2	31	25	44
Average for prior nominees		49	26	26
Note: Data are based on first Gallup survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
Gallup

The results are based on a July 10-15 Gallup poll, conducted in the days immediately after President Donald Trump's announcement that Kavanaugh was his choice to replace retiring justice Anthony Kennedy.

Gallup has measured initial support for all recent nominees dating back to 1991, with the exception of Stephen Breyer. Gallup also measured support for Robert Bork in 1987. Most of these measures came in the first few days after the nomination announcement was made, though the first reading on Bork came nearly two months after President Ronald Reagan nominated him.

Before Kavanaugh, the closest divisions of public opinion were six points (31% in favor, 25% opposed) for Bork in 1987 and eight points (44% to 36%) for Harriet Miers in 2005.

Gallup's initial measures of public support for Clarence Thomas, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and John Roberts showed each of these favored by more than 30-point margins, well above the historical average of 23 points.

For some nominees, Gallup measured opinion on multiple occasions between their nomination and their confirmation hearings. Typically, the percentage favoring their confirmation changed little over that period, with a modest increase in the percentage opposed and a similar decline in the percentage with no opinion.

Later polling on the Bork and Miers nominations showed even closer divisions of opinion for them than is seen in the initial measurement of Kavanaugh. In late October 2005, 42% of Americans were in favor of and 43% were opposed to the Miers nomination. In September 1987, 38% favored and 35% opposed Bork's nomination. Neither of those nominees was seated on the high court, with Miers' nomination withdrawn and Bork's nomination defeated in the Senate confirmation vote.

Record Opposition to Kavanaugh From Democrats

Opinions about Kavanaugh's confirmation are strongly related to partisanship -- 76% of Republicans favor him serving on the Supreme Court, while 67% of Democrats are opposed. Just 14% of Democrats want Kavanaugh confirmed.

Partisanship has always been a factor in public reaction to prior nominees. However, the level of opposition to Kavanaugh's confirmation among Democrats is the highest Gallup has measured to date among those who identify with the party not holding the White House. Democrats were less opposed toward Trump's prior nominee, Neil Gorsuch -- with 57% opposed to and 21% in favor of his confirmation. This matched the 57% opposition expressed by Republicans toward President Barack Obama's nomination of Sonia Sotomayor in 2009.

Roberts was the last nominee to be received more positively than negatively by the opposing party. Ginsburg and Thomas also had net-positive cross-party receptions.

	Party of president	Opposition party	Vote in favor	Not vote in favor	No opinion
			%	%	%
Kavanaugh	Rep	Dem	14	67	19
Gorsuch	Rep	Dem	21	57	22
Garland	Dem	Rep	33	51	16
Kagan	Dem	Rep	26	51	22
Sotomayor	Dem	Rep	24	57	20
Alito	Rep	Dem	35	40	25
Miers	Rep	Dem	27	53	20
Roberts	Rep	Dem	42	35	23
Ginsburg	Dem	Rep	41	25	34
Thomas	Rep	Dem	45	25	31
Bork	Rep	Dem	18	38	43
Note: Data are based on first Gallup survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
Gallup

While Kavanaugh engenders a stronger negative reaction from opponents of the president's party than prior nominees did, his evaluation among presidential loyalists is in line with historical figures.

The 76% of Republicans who want Kavanaugh confirmed exactly matches the percentage of Republicans who wanted Gorsuch confirmed, as well as the percentages of Democrats who wanted both Sotomayor and Merrick Garland to be seated on the court. Kavanaugh's support is also statistically similar to the initial levels for Samuel Alito and Miers among Republicans. Only Roberts had higher support (82%) among the president's party than Kavanaugh does.

	Party of president	Vote in favor	Not vote in favor	No opinion
		%	%	%
Kavanaugh	Rep	76	9	15
Gorsuch	Rep	76	11	14
Garland	Dem	76	11	14
Kagan	Dem	68	12	20
Sotomayor	Dem	76	6	17
Alito	Rep	73	11	16
Miers	Rep	73	16	11
Roberts	Rep	82	5	13
Ginsburg	Dem	65	6	29
Thomas	Rep	63	10	27
Bork	Rep	48	11	41
Note: Data are based on first Gallup survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
Gallup

Independents' reactions to Kavanaugh rank among the least positive measured for that group to date, with roughly as many opposing his nomination (37%) as favoring it (38%). The one-point margin is slightly worse than independents' initial opinions of Miers and Bork, and significantly worse than those for all other recent nominees.

	Vote in favor	Not vote in favor	No opinion
	%	%	%
Kavanaugh	38	37	25
Gorsuch	44	31	25
Garland	44	31	25
Kagan	43	33	25
Sotomayor	54	27	19
Alito	43	26	31
Miers	39	34	27
Roberts	54	24	22
Ginsburg	52	12	36
Thomas	48	17	35
Bork	30	26	44
Note: Data are based on first Gallup survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
Gallup

Implications

Kavanaugh begins his quest for the Supreme Court with a higher level of opposition than for any nominee Gallup has measured since 1987, and barely more support than opposition overall. To a large degree, these attitudes reflect the nation's increasing political polarization, perhaps more than anything about Kavanaugh himself. Democrats' sizable opposition to Kavanaugh may also reflect concern that his nomination will push the court in a more conservative direction.

As more information about Kavanaugh's background emerges, he is hoping to avoid the fate that befell both Bork and Miers, nominees whose initial support was most similar to his. Bork's defeat was largely attributable to concerns among Democrats about his judicial philosophy, while Miers' nomination was derailed in large part by concerns about her qualifications and conservative credentials among some in her own party.

With Supreme Court confirmations now requiring a simple majority of Senate votes, and Republicans holding a majority in that chamber, Kavanaugh is likely to be confirmed. However, he has little cushion, with Republicans holding a two-seat advantage. It is possible that if public support for his nomination drops, it could tip moderate Republican senators against his confirmation; or if support for his nomination increases, it could convince moderate Democratic senators to back it.