Opposition to Kavanaugh Had Been Rising Before Accusation

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In polling conducted last week, partly before and partly after allegations that Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted a teenage girl when he was a teen, 39% of Americans said they favored his confirmation to the Supreme Court and 42% were opposed. That represents a slight shift from two prior surveys in which more thought his nomination should be confirmed rather than rejected.

The latest poll was conducted Sept. 10-16. Last Wednesday, Sept. 12, a news report surfaced that there were sensitive allegations against Kavanaugh, and on Sept. 14, a reporter for The New Yorker detailed that those allegations involved sexual assault. On Sunday, The Washington Post published an interview with the accuser, Christine Blasey Ford. Kavanaugh has strongly denied the allegations.

Polling conducted Sept. 14-16 -- consisting of roughly 600 interviews -- showed no meaningful change in views on the Kavanaugh nomination compared with polling done earlier in the week. Thus, opposition to Kavanaugh was already increasing before the allegations were publicized, and the allegations appeared to have had no immediately negative effect on public opinion. The shift seen before the allegations may be in response to the Sept. 4-7 Senate confirmation hearings. Now that the sexual assault story has become front-page news, it is unclear if opinion might shift in the coming days. The Senate has scheduled hearings for Monday and invited both Kavanaugh and Ford to testify.

Rise in Opposition to Nominees Is the Norm

Greater opposition over the course of a confirmation process is consistent with the historical trends for past Supreme Court nominees, even for those who had relatively smooth confirmations.

Historically, as the confirmation process plays out, Americans become more likely to have an opinion about whether the nominee should be confirmed, based on data for seven prior nominees about whom Gallup polled on multiple occasions. The average 10-point drop in the percentage not having an opinion between the initial measurement on their nomination and the final measure has mostly been accompanied by an increase in the percentage opposed to the nominee, averaging seven percentage points, with a minimal change in the percentage favoring confirmation.

	First reading	Final reading	Change, vote in favor	Change, not vote in favor	Change, no opinion
			pct. pts.	pct. pts.	pct. pts.
Kagan	May 2010	Aug 2010	0	+4	-4
Sotomayor	May 2009	Jul 2009	+1	+8	-10
Alito	Nov 2005	Jan 2006	+4	+5	-9
Miers	Oct 2005	Oct 2005	-2	+7	-5
Roberts	Jul 2005	Sep 2005	+1	+4	-5
Thomas	Jul 1991	Oct 1991	+6	+13	-19
Bork	Aug 1987	Sep 1987	+7	+10	-18
AVERAGE			+2	+7	-10
Gallup

Opposition to Kavanaugh's nomination has increased five points compared with the initial poll on his confirmation in July, with the percentage in favor down two points and a three-point decline in no opinion.

Most prior nominees were well-regarded by the public when first announced, so any increase in opposition later in the process still left Americans solidly behind their confirmation. Because opinions about Kavanaugh's confirmation were divided from the start, the fairly modest shift in opinion since July has been enough to make him just the second nominee who ever had opposition that exceeded support.

Harriet Miers is the other prior high-court nominee who did not have greater support than opposition. Just before her October 2005 nomination was withdrawn amid increasing questions about her qualifications, 42% of Americans favored the Senate confirmation of Miers and 43% were opposed. That compared with a 44% to 36% gap in favor of her confirmation just after George W. Bush chose her.

Gallup has asked about 11 of the past 14 Supreme Court nominees since 1987 at least once. Robert Bork is the only other nominee for whom support did not exceed opposition by a significant margin in Gallup's final measure before the Senate vote.

	Vote in favor	Not vote in favor	Margin
	%	%	pct. pts.
Brett Kavanaugh	39	42	-3
Neil Gorsuch	45	32	+13
Merrick Garland	52	29	+23
Elena Kagan	46	36	+10
Sonia Sotomayor	55	36	+19
Samuel Alito	54	30	+24
Harriet Miers	42	43	-1
John Roberts	60	26	+34
Ruth Bader Ginsburg	53	14	+39
Clarence Thomas	58	30	+28
Robert Bork	38	35	+3
Reading for Kavanaugh is latest. Gallup did not measure support for the nominations of Anthony Kennedy, David Souter or Stephen Breyer. Gallup measured support for Neil Gorsuch, Merrick Garland and Ruth Bader Ginsburg just once, shortly after each was first nominated.
Gallup

There are similarities between the Kavanaugh revelations and sexual harassment allegations made against Clarence Thomas during his 1991 hearings. While opposition to Thomas' nomination did grow significantly in the fall of 1991, from 17% to 30%, his support never dropped below the 52% he enjoyed in the initial poll. On the eve of the Senate vote, an Oct. 14 Gallup Poll found 58% in favor of the Senate confirming Thomas and 30% opposed.

Record Polarization in Views of Kavanaugh Confirmation

Opinions about Supreme Court nominations have become increasingly polarized by party over time, likely reflecting the same trends seen in ratings of presidents. In the 1990s, slightly more than 20 percentage points separated Democrats' and Republicans' views of whether Thomas and Ruth Bader Ginsburg should be confirmed. Beginning in the mid-2000s, Republicans' and Democrats' opinions on nominees have diverged by at least 40 points. Last year, there was a 53-point gap in party support for President Donald Trump's first nominee, Neil Gorsuch.

Opinions about Kavanaugh's confirmation have been the most politically polarized to date, with an average 60-point gap in the percentage of Republicans (75%) and Democrats (15%) who want him to be confirmed.

	Republicans	Independents	Democrats	Republican-Democratic Gap
	%	%	%	pct. pts.
Kavanaugh	75	37	15	60
Gorsuch	74	44	21	53
Garland	33	44	76	-43
Kagan	23	44	69	-45
Sotomayor	27	53	76	-49
Alito	75	45	32	43
Miers	70	38	25	45
Roberts	79	52	39	40
Ginsburg	41	52	65	-24
Thomas	67	51	45	22
Gallup

The already low support for Kavanaugh among Democrats could be one reason the sexual assault allegations have not yet affected the opinion of his confirmation. His 37% support among independents is also on the low end of past measurements for that group, although there is still room for that to decline. Kavanaugh's 75% support among Republicans is right in line with what the president's co-partisans have given prior nominees.

Implications

The sexual assault allegations have undoubtedly imperiled Kavanaugh's nomination. The public had not been overly enthusiastic about his nomination from the beginning, although until now that might have had as much to do with Trump's unpopularity and increased political polarization as with Kavanaugh himself.

But even before the allegations surfaced late last week, Americans' attitudes had tilted against Kavanaugh's confirmation. Senators uncomfortable with voting to confirm him could factor public opinion into their decision calculus. And if they do, voting against Kavanaugh would not be inconsistent with public preferences, in contrast to what was the case for Thomas in 1991. As more is learned about the allegations in the coming days, opinion could shift more solidly against Kavanaugh's being confirmed. It is also possible the further investigation into the incident could work to Kavanaugh's benefit and turn the tide of public opinion back in his favor.

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