WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Many more Americans expect history to judge Joe Biden’s presidency unfavorably rather than favorably. Fifty-four percent of U.S. adults believe Biden will be remembered as a “below average” (37%) or “poor” (17%) president, while 19% say he will be evaluated as “outstanding” (6%) or “above average” (13%). Another 26% think he will be regarded as “average.”
Compared with nine recent presidents included in the new Gallup poll, Biden rates most similarly to Richard Nixon, who has a -42 net rating (12% outstanding or above average versus 54% below average or poor). Biden receives more “poor” reviews than Nixon does (37% vs. 30%), but Biden gets more outstanding or above-average ratings.
George W. Bush and Donald Trump also receive more negative than positive evaluations among recent presidents, with Trump getting both relatively high positive (40%) and negative ratings (44%) for his first term and the fewest average ones (16%). Trump’s 31% “poor” ratings are similar to those of Nixon, but Trump’s 17% “outstanding” ratings are higher than for most other presidents.
John Kennedy is rated best by Americans – with a net rating of +68, while Ronald Reagan (+38) and Barack Obama (+21) also get substantially favorable reviews.
The results are based on a Dec. 2-18 Gallup poll. The poll was completed before the Dec. 29 passing of Jimmy Carter, which could have affected the way people remember his presidency. Carter, along with Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, receives slightly more outstanding or above-average ratings from Americans than below-average or poor ones.
Democrats Give Biden Tepid Review; Republicans Overwhelmingly Critical
More Democrats expect history to look kindly rather than critically on the Biden presidency -- 44% think it will be judged outstanding or above average, while 16% say below average or poor. But nearly as many Democrats believe Biden will be remembered as an “average” president (38%) as a good one.
Independents and Republicans are much more pessimistic in their evaluations of Biden’s presidency. The slim majority of independents, 51%, believe Biden will get a negative historical review, compared with 15% who think he’ll get a positive one. Republicans overwhelmingly expect history to judge Biden harshly, including 76% who say he will be regarded as a “poor” president and 17% below average.
Democrats’ +28 net rating of Biden’s presidency is significantly lower than their ratings of other recent Democratic presidents, with Clinton at +43 being the next lowest. Biden is the only recent Democrat with a net-negative rating among political independents, and his -92 net rating among Republicans is more than 40 points worse than for any other Democratic president.
Kennedy is the only president to get a positive review among supporters of the opposition party. In fact, Republicans rate Kennedy similarly to Democrats, and better than independents do. Democrats rate Obama as the best of the Democratic presidents.
Among Republican presidents, Trump receives the most sharply polarized ratings, even more so than Biden does among Democratic presidents. Republicans believe Trump is on par with Reagan as having the best presidential legacy. In contrast, Democrats believe history will judge Trump’s first term worse than Nixon’s presidency. More independents expect Trump to receive a negative than positive evaluation, but independents rate Nixon worse.
Reagan is the only Republican president that Democrats do not evaluate negatively, though the elder George Bush also gets relatively neutral ratings from Democrats. Independents rate two Republican presidents -- Reagan and the elder Bush -- positively on balance.
Nixon is the only president to be rated more negatively than positively by his own party’s supporters. Republicans are much less charitable in their evaluations of the two Bush presidents than of Trump and Reagan, but still view them positively overall.
Trump First Term Rated Much Better Now Than When It Ended
Trump’s ratings have improved substantially from when he left office in January 2021 in the wake of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and the peak in U.S. deaths from COVID-19. At that time, 29% of Americans thought history would judge Trump as an outstanding or above-average president, 10% as average, and 61% below average or poor.
The -32 net rating Trump had in 2021 has improved to -4. Since 2021, there has been a larger decrease in below-average or poor evaluations of Trump’s first term (down 17 points) than an increase in outstanding or above-average ratings (up 11 points).
The biggest decline in below-average or poor ratings of Trump has come among independents (falling from 63% to 47%), but all party groups show meaningful declines in negative assessments of his first term. Most of the increase in outstanding or above-average ratings has come among Republicans, from 72% to 86%.
Trump is not the only president whose historical legacy assessments have improved compared with how they were rated at the end of their presidency.
- George W. Bush’s ratings when he left office in 2009 were similar to what Biden’s are now -- 59% negative and 17% positive. But the gap between negative and positive ratings of Bush has narrowed to nine points (24% positive, 33% negative).
- Carter had a 14% positive rating and 46% negative rating in December 1980, but now gets more positive than negative ratings.
- Opinions of Obama’s presidency are slightly better now than in 2017 due to lower below-average or poor ratings.
Reagan’s evaluations haven’t changed much since his presidency ended, while those for George H.W. Bush and Clinton have worsened.
Bottom Line
Americans do not expect history to be kind when it judges Biden’s presidency. Right now, he is evaluated similarly to Nixon, who resigned from the White House amid the Watergate scandal. Biden’s fellow Democrats are less enthusiastic about his presidency than they are about other recent Democratic presidents, and Biden is the only recent Democratic president who currently has a net-negative evaluation among independents. However, past presidents who finished challenging terms, including Carter, George W. Bush and Trump, have seen the harsh ratings they received at the time they left the White House soften considerably over time.
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