WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ political party preferences remained closely divided in 2024, with the Republican Party having a slight edge for the third consecutive year. Overall, 46% of Americans identified as Republicans or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party, compared with 45% who identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Prior to 2022, Republicans only had a slight edge once before, in 1991.
These results are based on combined data from 2024 Gallup telephone surveys, encompassing interviews with more than 14,000 U.S. adults.
Gallup asks Americans if they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Those who identify as political independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party.
Gallup has measured the political leanings of independents consistently since 1991. For most of this time, the Democratic Party has held at least a slight edge in combined party identification and leaning, including from 1992 through 2001, 2004 through 2010, and 2012 through 2021.
The Democratic advantage was largest in 2008, at 12 percentage points, but shrank to zero by 2011 before settling into the two-to-six-point range for the next decade.
In the past three years, which were marked by low satisfaction with the way things were going in the United States, negative evaluations of the U.S. economy and low job approval ratings for Democratic President Joe Biden, Republicans have held slight advantages of one to two points. Amid this challenging climate for the incumbent Democratic Party, Republicans won control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 elections and the U.S. Senate and the presidency in the 2024 elections.
The recent shift from a Democratic to Republican advantage in party affiliation is apparent in most major subgroups of Americans. There have been slightly larger-than-average increases in Republican identification and leaning among Hispanic Americans (from 27% to 36%), young adults (33% to 39%), lower-income Americans (36% to 41%), those without a college degree (45% to 50%), Catholics (42% to 47%) and Black Americans (12% to 17%).
Among the subgroups showing little to no increase in Republican Party affiliation since 2021 are college graduates (from 41% to 42%), adults aged 65 and older (49% to 48%), non-Hispanic White people (53% to 54%), married people (51% to 52%), upper-income (47% to 48%) and middle-income Americans (46% to 47%), political liberals (9% to 10%), and nonreligious Americans (25% to 26%).
Independent Identification Holds at Record-High 43%
When initially asked for their political party identification in 2024, Americans were most likely to identify as independents (43%), with 28% saying they were Democrats and 28% Republicans. Pluralities of at least 39% of Americans have identified as political independents each year since 2011, with the latest figure tying the record high, previously registered in 2014 and 2023.
In each of the past three years, equal percentages of Americans have identified as Republicans and Democrats. This contrasts with earlier years when more U.S. adults identified as Democrats, although this was not the case in 1991, 2002 and 2003, when Republicans led by a slight margin, and in 2004 and 2005, when the parties tied. Gallup has asked the initial party identification question using a consistent telephone interviewing methodology since 1988.
Both parties are near their historic low points in unleaned party identification. Democrats’ record low was 27%, measured in 2023. After not registering under 30% until 2015, the percentage has been below that mark in six of the past 10 years.
The low point in Republican identification was 25% in 2013. It was last at 30% or above in 2006 and has been stable at around 28% over the past six years. As such, the increase in total Republican Party affiliation over the past three years is attributable to more independents leaning Republican rather than more Americans identifying outright as Republican.
Bottom Line
The Democratic Party long had at least a slight edge in party preferences among the U.S. adult population. But in the past three years, under an unpopular Biden administration, Republican identification and leaning has exceeded that of Democrats. It is possible, then, that with Republicans poised to control the federal government for the next two to four years, that party preferences will shift back toward the Democrats. Whether that happens will depend largely on whether Americans are pleased or displeased with the state of the nation under Republican rule.
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