WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup’s January 2025 Economic Confidence Index (ECI) stands at -19, down slightly from December’s -14 reading but improved from the -26 registered just before the election.
The latest results are from a Jan. 2-15, 2025, Gallup poll, conducted during the presidential transition from Joe Biden to Donald Trump. During this time, Trump was promising economic change -- from addressing inflation to enacting tariffs and cutting taxes.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index summarizes Americans’ evaluations of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their outlook for the economy (whether they believe it is getting better or getting worse).
The index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and say the economy is getting better) to -100 (if all Americans rate the economy as poor and say it is getting worse). In Gallup’s trend of these measures since 1992, the highest ECI score is +56, in January 2000, and the lowest is -72, in October 2008.
Republicans and Democrats Swap Confidence Amid Transition
As is typically the case, political party groups differ greatly in their evaluations of the economy, with supporters of the president’s party evaluating it much more positively than those in the opposing party. Those changes were already underway during the presidential transition period.
Since the election, Democrats’ score on the index has dropped by 30 points, while Republicans’ score has improved by the same amount and independents' by about half as much, 16 points. Currently, Democrats’ index score is +7, while Republicans’ is -42 and independents’ is -18.
The recent changes are similar to what happened during the Trump-Biden transition. After Biden took office in 2021, Democrats became more confident than Republicans in the economy.
Evaluations of Current Economic Conditions Steady
This month, 26% of U.S. adults say economic conditions are “excellent” or “good,” while 33% call them “only fair” and 40% “poor.” This results in a -14 score on the current conditions component of the index for the third month in a row, which is slightly higher than the 2024 average of -19. The last time the current conditions score was better than now was in March 2024 (-9).
This measure has seen more modest partisan shifts since the election. Currently, 45% of Democrats rate the economy as “excellent” or “good,” while 26% of independents and 9% of Republicans say the same. In October, those figures were 51% for Democrats, 22% for independents and 5% for Republicans.
Economic Outlook Changing More
When asked about the economy’s direction, 34% of Americans say conditions are getting better, while 57% say they’re getting worse. Slightly fewer Americans now than in December (38%) say the economy is getting better.
The economic outlook component of the index is currently at -23; this marks the first time since July 2024 that the outlook component has been lower than it was in the prior month.
Americans’ economic outlook has seen more movement than the current economic conditions component of the index since the election. Reduced optimism about the economy’s direction is seen among Democrats (42% say it is getting better, down 24 percentage points from October) but not independents (33%, up six points) or Republicans (28%, up 20 points).
Mentions of Economy, Inflation as “Most Important Problem” Below Government
Economic concerns, including the economy in general terms (14%) and inflation (12%), rank high when Americans name the most important problem facing the country, but both trail the government (23%) by a significant margin.
“The government” has risen as the most important problem since the preelection poll in October, when 17% of U.S. adults mentioned it. In contrast, fewer Americans now name the economy in general (down from 21% in October) and immigration (13%, down from 21%) as the leading problem. Mentions of inflation are little changed from 14% in October.
Americans’ perceptions of the most important problem also have a partisan slant, with 18% of Republicans mentioning the economy, while 13% of independents and 10% of Democrats say the same. Meanwhile, the government is named by 35% of Democrats but far fewer Republicans (21%) and independents (16%).
The largest changes since the election have been fewer Republicans saying the economy and immigration are the most important problem and more Democrats saying the government is.
Quality Job Outlook Steady
Gallup’s periodic assessment of the job market finds 48% of Americans saying it is now a good time to find a quality job and 45% saying it is a bad time.
This month’s “good time” percentage is up four points from the prior measure in October and is the first reading since January 2023 that shows improvement from the prior assessment. This comes on the heels of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December 2024 report that found an increase in U.S. employment and little change in the unemployment rate, at 4.1% -- the same percentage as October 2024.
While 52% of Democrats and 51% of independents think it is a “good time” to find a job, 43% of Republicans say the same. The increase this month from October is driven largely by rising optimism from Republicans and independents.
Bottom Line
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index has grown less negative since the 2024 election, driven primarily by more Republicans perceiving the economy as getting better. January’s drop from December results mainly from Democrats’ more negative future outlook.
Overall, Americans are less likely to mention the economy as the nation’s top problem than they were before the election, and confidence in the job market is slightly stronger than it was then.
The economy, jobs and trade are a major part of Trump’s platform. Now that he is in office, Republicans’ perceptions of the economy are likely to continue to improve -- particularly their evaluations of current conditions -- while Democrats’ are likely to worsen. Whether these changes result in an overall net-positive or net-negative evaluation of the economy remains to be seen, but they will be driven to a large degree by what happens with economic growth, unemployment and inflation in the coming months.
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