WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ overall confidence in the U.S. economy remains in solidly negative territory in February, with Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index registering -19, matching January’s score.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index (ECI) summarizes Americans’ evaluations of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their outlook for the economy (whether they believe it is getting better or getting worse).
The index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and say the economy is getting better) to -100 (if all Americans rate the economy as poor and say it is getting worse). In Gallup’s trend of these measures since 1992, the highest ECI score is +56, in January 2000, and the lowest is -72, in October 2008.
These results are from a Feb. 3-16 poll, conducted during President Donald Trump’s first month in office.
Americans Shift to Seeing Current Conditions as ‘Only Fair’
Fewer Americans now see the economy in starkly positive or negative terms, with more gravitating toward a middle-ground assessment. In February, 20% say conditions are “excellent” or “good,” down from 26% in January. At the same time, the share describing the economy as “poor” has fallen from 40% to 33%. Now, more Americans describe conditions as being “only fair,” at 45%, up from 33% in January.
As a result, Gallup’s net current conditions score -- the percentage evaluating conditions as positive rather than negative -- stands at -13, compared with -14 last month.
Among partisans, Republicans post a net current conditions score of -8 (20% rating the economy as excellent/good minus 28% poor), Democrats come in at -11 (20% excellent/good minus 31% poor), and independents at -18 (21% excellent/good minus 39% poor).
Democrats’ perceptions of current conditions have worsened this month, following Trump’s inauguration, while Republicans’ have improved. However, with the second Trump administration still in its early days, the two parties now view economic conditions similarly.
Economic Outlook Remains Largely Negative
Currently, 35% of Americans believe the economy is “getting better,” and 59% say it is “getting worse,” both on par with January. Economic pessimism trended downward in the last half of 2024, with the percentage perceiving it as getting worse falling to 52% in December, but it has climbed since then.
The net economic outlook component -- the percentage who say the economy is getting better minus the percentage who say it is getting worse -- is virtually unchanged at -24, compared with -23 last month.
The stability in Americans’ economic outlook in January and February masks changes in partisans’ views during the presidential transition from a Democrat to a Republican.
Republicans register a net economic outlook score of +55, with 74% saying conditions are getting better and 19% saying they are getting worse. This is a marked improvement from their -35 reading in January, as more thought the economy was worsening (63%) than improving (28%). Both scores contrast with their -80 reading in October, prior to Trump prevailing in the 2024 election.
Five percent of Democrats now say the economy is getting better, and 92% say it is getting worse, resulting in an outlook score of -87. This compares with a -9 score in January (42% better and 51% worse) and +38 in October.
Independents split closer to the national average at -39 (27% getting better and 66% getting worse). Their net economic outlook score was -26 last month.
GOP’s ECI Positive for First Time Since December 2020
Significant partisan shifts on the economic outlook dimension since October have resulted in a near-complete reversal in the overall ECI score for Republicans and Democrats. Republicans now hold a markedly higher ECI score (+24) than Democrats (-49) -- whereas in October, before the election, the scores were -72 and +37, respectively. This is the first time since December 2020, near the end of Trump’s first term, that Republicans have had a net positive view of the economy.
Bottom Line
In February, Americans’ economic confidence stayed in negative territory, with incremental shifts in positive and negative evaluations of current conditions effectively canceling each other out.
Although the ECI remains unchanged at -19, underlying partisan shifts illustrate a more dynamic picture, as Republicans and Democrats reset their expectations for the direction of the economy given likely economic policy shifts under a new presidential administration.
The two major parties’ scores are likely to diverge further in the coming months as partisans increasingly tie the state of the U.S. economy to Trump’s administration and its policies rather than to Biden’s.
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