WASHINGTON, D.C. — Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index dropped to -38 this month from -27 in March, as Americans grew more negative about both current economic conditions and the economy’s direction. This is the lowest index reading since November 2023 (-40), though still above the recent low of -58 in June 2022 during a period of high inflation and record gas prices.
The April 1-15 poll was conducted amid ongoing tensions between Iran and the U.S. and Israel, which have been at war since Feb. 28. The conflict has interrupted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, driving global oil prices and U.S. fuel costs higher.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index has a theoretical range of -100, if all Americans rate current economic conditions as poor and thought the economy was getting worse, to +100, if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and believed the economy was getting better. The all-time-high reading was +56 in January 2000, while the record low was -72 in October 2008.
Americans More Negative About Current Economy and Its Trajectory
Nearly half of U.S. adults, 47%, describe current economic conditions as “poor,” up from 40% in March. Meanwhile, 21% believe the economy is “excellent” or “good,” not meaningfully changed from 23% last month. The last time evaluations were worse was in November 2023, when half rated conditions as poor.
By 73% to 23%, Americans believe the economy is getting worse rather than better. Last month, the split was 66%-30%. The current economic outlook reading is the worst since October 2023, when 74% said it was getting worse and 21% getting better.
Worsening economic confidence is seen this month among Republicans, Democrats and independents. Republicans continue to evaluate the economy positively with a Republican presidential administration in office, but their Economic Confidence Index score dropped 15 points between March (+44) and April (+29), the largest decline among the major party groups.
Independents and Democrats rated the economy more negatively than positively in March, and their April ratings are even worse. The index among independents now sits at -46, down 11 points from March, and is -78 among Democrats, down five points.
Job Market Ratings Poor; 53% See Stock Investing as Bad Idea
In addition to assessing general economic perceptions, the April survey asked Americans to evaluate two specific aspects of the U.S. economy: the job market and the stock market. Currently, 33% of U.S. adults say it is a good time to find a quality job, and 63% say it is a bad time. Job market evaluations are slightly worse than the prior reading from January, when 38% thought it was a good time to find a quality job, but the same as in November, tying the worst reading since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Stock values today remain historically high but have been somewhat volatile since the war with Iran began. When asked for their views on investing $1,000 in the stock market right now, more Americans believe it would be a bad idea (53%) rather than a good idea (43%). Gallup has asked this question periodically since 1990, with Americans generally positive during strong markets like the late 1990s dot-com boom and negative during market downturns, including during the Great Recession era.
As is typically the case, stock owners are much more positive about investing (52% say it would be a good idea to invest) than nonowners (28%). Roughly six in 10 U.S. adults have money invested in the stock market.
Government, Economy, War Viewed as Top U.S. Problems
Economic concerns and the war both figure prominently when Americans are asked to name the most important problem facing the country, but the government still receives more mentions than any other specific issue. Twenty-eight percent name the government in response to this open-ended question, a share similar to what Gallup has measured over the past six months.
Thirty-two percent of U.S. adults name at least one specific economic issue, including the economy in general terms (at 13%), inflation and the high cost of living (11%), and gas prices (3%). Mentions of these various economic issues, collectively, are unchanged from 32% in March but up slightly from February (25%) and January (28%).
Other specific issues receiving significant mentions are immigration (11%), the war in the Middle East (8%), and wars in general terms (5%).
Republicans (32%), Democrats (31%) and independents (33%) are about equally likely to mention economic issues as the most important problem facing the country. Democrats are much more likely to mention the government (41%) than independents (23%) and Republicans (18%) are.
Bottom Line
Americans were already sour on the U.S. economy before the war with Iran started, and now their economic confidence has fallen to levels not seen in more than two years. High gas prices have been one consequence of the war, though relatively few Americans cite fuel costs specifically as the most important problem facing the country. Rather, the issue may be subsumed in more commonly mentioned issues like the war, the economy, inflation and the government more generally.
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