Story Highlights
- Pluralities say stock market will rise, economy will grow in next six months
- Expectations for interest rates tilt toward falling
- Higher unemployment and inflation are predicted
WASHINGTON, D.C. — More Americans expect the stock market and economy to improve over the next six months than say each will worsen, while they are pessimistic on balance about unemployment and inflation. The public’s forecast for interest rates is more mixed.
These findings are based on a question asking U.S. adults whether, over the next six months, each of five economic metrics will go up a lot, go up a little, stay the same, go down a little or go down a lot. Although some say each will stay the same, more Americans are positive than negative about the stock market (50% vs. 25%) and economic growth (49% vs. 36%). Outlook for interest rates is divided (41% positive vs. 36% negative), while more expect unemployment and inflation to increase than decrease. Sixty-two percent predict higher inflation and 50% higher unemployment.
Gallup first asked Americans in October 2001 what they expected would happen with these five aspects of the economy and updated them monthly through late 2005. Since then, views have been measured 11 times, though not during the late 2007-early 2009 Great Recession. The latest results are from a Jan. 2-17 Gallup poll.
When the questions were last asked, in April 2025, views had worsened significantly from three months before, as President Donald Trump announced tariffs on most U.S. trading partners that created economic uncertainty. The more positive January 2025 readings were fueled by Republicans’ positive expectations for the economy under the incoming Trump presidency.
On Balance, Positive Outcomes Expected for Stock Market, Economic Growth
In April, Americans’ positive predictions for the stock market plummeted amid turbulence in the global markets as Trump’s tariff policies took effect: Public expectations that the stock market would go up at least a little tumbled 32 percentage points, from a record-high 61% to 29%, tied for the record low. Americans’ positive outlook for the market in the coming months is now 21 points higher (50%), and the expectation that it will go down has fallen 33 points to 25%. Another 17% of U.S. adults think the market will remain the same.
While Americans’ outlook for the stock market has brightened, positivity has not returned to the January 2025 record level.
U.S. adults’ expectations for economic growth have followed a similar trajectory, with positivity running high one year ago, at 53%, before falling to 38% in April and mostly recovering today. Optimism about growth (49%) now significantly outweighs pessimism (36%) and the belief that the economy will stay the same (13%).
Americans’ Expectations for Interest Rates Are Divided
Americans are slightly more likely to predict that interest rates will go down (41%) than up (36%), while 20% foresee a continuation of the current rates. This is a reversal of sentiment from April, when slightly more Americans thought rates would rise than fall. These readings are far more positive than the January 2022 reading, when a near-record-high 78% thought rates would increase.
Higher Inflation, Unemployment Anticipated
While Gallup has typically found U.S. adults predicting inflation will rise, the 2022 reading of 79% was the highest on record. After declining to 67% in early 2023, expectations for higher inflation dropped 15 points further to 52% in January 2025 before rising to 63% in April; they remain at 62%. This still far outpaces the 26% who think it will decline and the 9% who say it will remain the same.
Americans’ expectations for unemployment are worse today than last January and April. Half of U.S. adults now expect unemployment to increase, up 12 points from January 2025. Another 32% think it will decline, and 16% say it will remain the same.
Americans’ Views of Economic Factors Polarized Politically
Americans’ predictions for each of the five economic aspects continue to be politically polarized, with Republicans expecting much more positive outcomes than Democrats and independents. Each metric garners a majority-level positive prediction from Republicans (ranging from 59% for inflation to 82% for economic growth). Democrats are equally likely to foresee stock market gains or declines, but majorities or pluralities (ranging from 49% for interest rates to 86% for inflation) offer negative predictions for the other four metrics. Independents’ expectations are more similar to Democrats' than Republicans'.
Republicans’ views of all five economic aspects are similar to what they were one year ago at the start of Trump’s second presidential term but better than in April. Democrats’ and independents’ predictions of the metrics are generally worse than one year ago, but similar to or better than April’s readings.
Bottom Line
Americans’ economic outlook for the next six months is mixed. Pluralities of U.S. adults expect positive momentum in the stock market and overall economic growth, and the public tilts slightly toward believing interest rates will fall rather than rise. These views mark a recovery from the pessimism seen last spring amid market volatility, though optimism has not fully returned to earlier highs.
At the same time, Americans broadly anticipate continued economic strain, as a clear majority expect inflation to rise, and half believe unemployment will increase. These outlooks diverge greatly by party, with Republicans forecasting positive outcomes across all measures, while Democrats and independents are more likely to foresee worsening conditions.
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Learn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series works. View complete question responses and trends (PDF download).
