WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans are expecting 2026 to be a year of many challenges, as majorities foresee negative outcomes in most of 13 economic, political, societal and international areas.
The public is divided on what will happen in two areas — labor union strikes and Russia’s power in the world. Only one aspect garners a majority-level positive prediction from the public: 55% believe the stock market will rise.
Americans are most pessimistic about political cooperation, international disputes, China’s power in the world, the federal budget deficit and economic prosperity. Clear majorities also expect rising unemployment, taxes, prices and crime rates, along with declining American power in the world.
These findings are from a Dec. 1-14 nationally representative web survey conducted via the probability-based Gallup Panel. The latest, largely negative, predictions come at a time when public opinion about the nation’s leaders, economy and direction is gloomy.
Most Predictions Worse Than Last Year, Among All Partisan Groups
Americans’ predictions for 2026 are considerably more negative than they were for 2025. This increased negativity includes double-digit declines (of 11 to 18 percentage points) in positive predictions for employment, taxes, economic prosperity, China’s power in the world, political cooperation, prices, and the stock market. Positive predictions fell by five to nine points for the United States’ power in the world, the federal budget deficit, international disputes and the crime rate.
Predictions for labor union strikes and Russian power are not significantly different than they were last year.
Party Identification Still Closely Tied to Predictions for U.S.
Party identification remains the strongest demographic or attitudinal factor shaping Americans’ predictions for 2026. As was the case last year, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to offer positive assessments across all dimensions. This pattern, which is consistent with previous readings, finds Americans who identify with the party of the sitting president expressing greater optimism about the year ahead than those from the opposing party.
Majorities of Republicans, ranging from 52% to 83%, currently predict positive outcomes for most aspects in 2026, with two exceptions: political cooperation (17%) and China’s power declining (48%). In contrast, no more than 36% of Democrats expect any of the positive situations to occur in 2026. Roughly one in three Democrats foresee four eventualities in the year ahead, including few labor strikes, the stock market rising, a decline in Russian power and decreasing crime rates.
For their part, a majority of independents, 54%, predict the stock market will rise, and half think there will be few labor union strikes or declining Russian power. Fewer think any of the other positive situations will occur.
Gallup has measured Americans’ New Year predictions periodically since 1959, but the earlier data were gathered through telephone and face-to-face surveys. Since 2022, Gallup has used web-based surveys for these questions, and the results from the different methods cannot be directly compared.
In 2022, as they were looking ahead to 2023, with Joe Biden in the White House, Democrats offered a more optimistic outlook than Republicans for each of the dimensions measured.
The current overall shifts toward more negative predictions are driven largely by Republicans, who have become significantly more pessimistic about each dimension since last year, when Donald Trump was set to replace Democrat Biden as president. Shifts among independents and Democrats from last year are smaller, on average, and in some cases, optimism has increased among these groups.
Bottom Line
Americans head into 2026 expecting a difficult year, with majorities predicting negative outcomes across most economic, political and global measures, and only the stock market evoking optimism. Pessimism is heightened since last year and mainly reflects a decline in Republicans’ high expectations at the start of Trump’s second presidential term, though Republican supporters still largely believe good things will happen this coming year.
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