WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans have continued to grow more negative about the economy in May, pushing Gallup's Economic Confidence Index to -45, down from -38 in April and the lowest reading since October 2022, when it was identical to now. Still, the current index score is above the recent low of -58 in June 2022 during a period, like now, marked by high inflation and soaring gas prices.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and say the economy is getting better) to -100 (if all Americans rate the economy as poor and say it is getting worse). In Gallup’s trend of these measures since 1992, the highest ECI score is +56, in January 2000, and the lowest is -72, in October 2008.
The May 1-17 poll started before the latest federal inflation report was released on May 12, showing consumer prices in April had risen at their fastest annual pace since May 2023. Energy costs drove much of the increase, with gas prices up sharply from a year earlier and the highest since 2022, largely due to the disruption of global oil supplies from the U.S. conflict with Iran.
Pessimism About Economy's Present and Future Fuels Confidence Drop
The ECI summarizes Americans’ evaluations of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their outlook for the economy (whether they believe it is getting better or getting worse). The latest decline in economic confidence is driven by growing negativity about both measures.
Just 16% of Americans rate current economic conditions as excellent or good, the lowest since April 2023. Nearly half, 49%, now say conditions are poor, a percentage that has been rising since the start of 2026, when it was 37%. Thirty-four percent now rate the economy as only fair.
Meanwhile, 76% of U.S. adults think economic conditions are getting worse, while 20% say they are getting better. The share saying conditions are getting worse is now at its highest point since an identical 76% in May 2023 and has been steadily growing in 2026.
GOP Confidence Falls to Low Point of Trump's Second Term
At +22, Republicans’ ECI score remains in positive territory, but it is the lowest recorded for the group in President Donald Trump’s second term. Independents’ -58 score and Democrats’ -80 are also the lowest for each group since Trump resumed office in 2025.
Confidence among each party has declined steadily for the past four months, including drops of 33 points for Republicans, 29 points for independents and 13 points for Democrats since February.
Inflation Rises as Most Important Problem, but Government Still Tops List
Mentions of the high cost of living and inflation as the most important problem facing the country have risen steadily since late 2025, reaching 15% in the May poll, up from 8% in February. This puts inflation concerns behind the government, which remains the top-mentioned problem at 26%.
As the price of gas has risen, so have mentions of it as the nation’s top problem. It is currently at 4%, including 10% among Republicans and 3% among both Democrats and independents. Government is mentioned by more Democrats (36%) than Republicans (23%) or independents (22%). For their part, independents cite inflation (18%) slightly more often than Democrats (14%) and Republicans (11%) do.
Bottom Line
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index has fallen to its lowest point in nearly four years, when Americans were also spending well above $4 for a gallon of gasoline and paying higher prices for a range of goods. With just 16% of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good and 76% saying conditions are getting worse, the public mood heading into summer 2026 is markedly darker than it was at the start of the year. Americans’ confidence in the economy is approaching the low level last seen in the summer of 2022, when similar conditions were present.
Stay up to date with the latest insights by following @Gallup on X and on Instagram.
Learn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series works. View complete question responses and trends (PDF download).
