In Busy Election Year, African Leaders Enjoyed High Approval

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Majorities in 21 of the 28 African countries that Gallup surveyed in 2015 -- a year marked by elections across the continent -- said they approved of the job performance of their respective nation's president. Ratings were highest in Botswana, Burkina Faso and Kenya, where roughly four in five said they approved. Approval was lowest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (28%) and Mauritania (32%).

	Approve	Most recent election/Outcome
	%
Botswana -- Ian Khama	82	In office since 2008
Burkina Faso -- Michel Kafando+*	80	Could not run in 2015 election
Kenya -- Uhuru Kenyatta	79	In office since 2013
Mozambique -- Filipe Nyusi	74	In office since 2015
Cameroon -- Paul Biya	72	In office since 1982
Niger -- Mahamadou Issoufou	69	Re-elected in February-March 2016
Ivory Coast -- Alassane Ouattara	68	Re-elected in 2015
Uganda -- Yoweri Museveni	67	Re-elected in February 2016
Nigeria -- Muhammadu Buhari	67	Elected March 2015; survey was fielded in June-July 2015
Tanzania -- Jakaya Kikwete*	64	Could not run in 2015 election
Mali -- Ibrahim Boubacar Keita	61	In office since 2013
Sierra Leone -- Ernest Bai Koroma	60	In office since 2007
Republic of the Congo -- Denis Sassou Nguesso	59	Re-elected in March 2016
Senegal -- Macky Sall	57	In office since 2012
Togo -- Faure Gnassingbé	56	Re-elected in 2015
Guinea -- Alpha Condé	55	Re-elected in 2015
Malawi -- Peter Mutharika	55	In office since 2014
Zimbabwe -- Robert Mugabe	53	In office since 1980 as prime minister, and as president since 1987
Chad -- Idriss Déby	52	Re-elected in April 2016
Madagascar -- Hery Rajaonarimampianina	52	In office since 2014
Benin -- Thomas Boni Yayi*	51	Could not run in February 2016 election
Zambia -- Edgar Lungu	49	In office since January 2015; new election scheduled for August 2016
South Africa -- Jacob Zuma	45	General elections in August 2016
Liberia -- Ellen Johnson Sirleaf	43	In office since 2006
Gabon -- Ali Bongo Ondimba	41	In office since 2009; elections in late 2016
Ghana -- John Dramani Mahama	36	In office since 2012; elections in November 2016
Mauritania -- Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz	32	In office since 2009
Democratic Republic of the Congo -- Joseph Kabila	28	In office since 2001; elections in November 2016
*No longer in office; +Acting president
World Poll

More than a dozen national elections took place across the African continent last year, with some observers perhaps expecting to see more changes than they did. But ahead of the ballot, incumbent candidates enjoyed relatively high approval ratings and, in most cases, they were able to win another term. Burkina Faso and Tanzania are the notable exceptions. In the former, although acting President Michel Kafando enjoyed an approval rating of 80%, he could not run in last November's elections. In the latter, 64% of Tanzanians approved of Jakaya Kikwete's job performance, but he could not run again because of constitutional term limits. However, a candidate from the ruling party won the election in Tanzania.

So far this year, several national elections have already taken place, and incumbents have retained office, most notably in Chad, the Republic of the Congo and Uganda. Of the seven countries where leadership approval drifted below 50% -- the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mauritania, Ghana, Gabon, Liberia, South Africa and Zambia -- five have elections scheduled for later this year. But relatively low approval ratings in these countries suggest significant challenges for incumbents, provided the elections are free and fair.

Africans With Favorable View of Job Market Far More Likely to Approve

In general, there are few differences in presidential approval ratings by gender or age. In most countries, less educated Africans and those living in rural areas are more likely to approve of their country's president. But Africans' positive views of the job environment appear to factor more substantially in presidential approval.

It should be noted that in most African countries, a majority or near-majority said it was a bad time to find a job in their communities in 2015. As many as three in four residents in Ghana and Zimbabwe said it was a bad time. In just a few countries -- Mozambique, Niger and Ivory Coast -- a slim majority said it was a good time for job seekers.

In most countries, majorities of Africans who said it was a good time to find a job were more likely to approve of their president's performance than those who said it was a bad time. Differences were largest in Mauritania and Senegal. In South Africa, however, attitudes toward job conditions did not appear to make much of a difference in approval ratings (41% approval from those who said it was a good time vs. 46% approval among those who said it was a bad time). This could suggest voters will look beyond jobs when they cast their ballot in the coming general elections.

	Good time	Bad time	Difference
	% Approve	% Approve	(pct. pts.)
Mauritania	49	18	31
Senegal	76	46	30
Togo	72	46	26
Ghana	55	31	24
Democratic Republic of the Congo	42	21	21
Guinea	65	45	20
Mali	73	54	19
Nigeria	78	61	17
Zimbabwe	67	51	16
Niger	76	61	15
Zambia	58	44	14
Sierra Leone	69	56	13
Uganda	74	62	12
Republic of the Congo	66	54	12
Chad	57	45	12
Botswana	91	79	12
Gabon	48	36	12
Mozambique	78	69	9
Liberia	48	40	8
Benin	55	47	8
Ivory Coast	71	63	8
Madagascar	56	49	7
Malawi	58	54	4
Kenya	81	77	4
Burkina Faso	82	78	4
Tanzania	65	62	3
Cameroon	74	71	3
South Africa	41	46	-5
World Poll

Bottom Line

The findings provide a lens into Africans' support for presidential incumbents just a few months before re-elections in some countries. Overall, the African leadership picture has changed little after the last round of elections. In general, high approval ratings suggest incumbents can win another term, although Africans' approval of their leaders ranges widely. Further, Africans' attitudes toward the local job climate, which may be based not only on candidates' promises during electoral campaigns but also on Africans' perceived ability to earn income from labor, appear to be a factor in approval ratings in many countries.

Over the long term, the creation of a climate conducive to job creation and entrepreneurship will become a formidable task for leaders as sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population is expected to exceed that of the rest of world combined by 2035. An estimated 18 million new jobs per year would be needed in the region to absorb the flow of working-age Africans, a daunting challenge, to say the least, for leaders in any region.

Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with at least 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in 2015 in Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. For results based on the total sample of national adults in each country, the margin of sampling error is ±3.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

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