Confidence in National Institutions May Have Local Roots

WASHINGTON, D.C. — People’s confidence in national institutions, including their government, their judicial system and the honesty of their elections, may have local roots.

Gallup World Poll data show a strong association between people’s satisfaction with seven specific aspects of their local environment and their confidence in five different national institutions. Countries where people are satisfied with more aspects of their local area are, on average, confident in more of these national institutions.

Understanding people’s confidence in national institutions is important because it offers perspective on the legitimacy, stability and perceived effectiveness of structures that govern people’s lives.

Globally, people’s confidence in their institutions has gradually increased over time. Last year was the first time since Gallup started monitoring global trends in 2006 that the median global confidence ratings for their country’s military (73%), banks (62%), judicial system (53%), honesty of elections (51%) and national government (50%) were all at 50% or higher.

Although some countries don’t follow the pattern, average confidence in these five types of institutions has risen worldwide, spanning countries with different types of political systems and income levels. Nonetheless, there is significant room for confidence in national institutions to grow.

Satisfaction With Local Services Adds Up

Satisfaction with local conditions may have a compounding effect on faith in national institutions. At the individual level, people who are satisfied with none of the seven local conditions report confidence in 1.3 national institutions, on average. By contrast, individuals who are satisfied with all seven local conditions are confident in an average of 3.7 institutions.

This gap in confidence by satisfaction with local conditions is wider than those linked to other attitudinal and demographic factors. There is a much weaker relationship between financial status and confidence in national institutions; people finding it very difficult to get by on their household income express confidence in an average of 2.3 institutions, while those living comfortably on their income are confident in 3.1.

Importantly, the association between satisfaction with local conditions and confidence in national institutions remains strong even after accounting for various other demographic and attitudinal factors, such as approval of the country's leader.

View complete regression output tables (PDF download).

Taken together, satisfaction with these seven local conditions is highly associated with national confidence, but some conditions have stronger associations than others. Satisfaction with local schools and satisfaction with the availability of quality healthcare are stronger predictors than others, such as satisfaction with water quality or public transportation.

While the relationship between satisfaction with local conditions and confidence in national institutions is strong, these data do not establish causality — that is, that greater satisfaction with local conditions causes, or leads to, increases in confidence in national institutions. While it is possible that this is the case, it is also possible, for example, that some unaccounted factor may explain variation in both satisfaction with local conditions and confidence in national institutions.

Local Services Predict Confidence, Regardless of Governance or Country Income

The relationship between feelings about one’s local conditions and national institutions holds around the world, regardless of the system of government or level of economic development. Across high-income and low-income countries, as well as liberal democracies and non-democracies, the more local conditions a person is satisfied with, the more national institutions they have confidence in. The gaps between those satisfied with five or more versus three or fewer local conditions are broadly consistent (ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 institutions) within the income and democracy categories.

The relationship between local satisfaction and confidence in institutions also applies at the community level. The Gallup World Poll collects data via face-to-face surveys in roughly 100 countries, where interviews are collected randomly in different geographic areas.

In these areas, there is a high degree of similarity among residents in terms of how satisfied they are with their local conditions and whether they have confidence in national institutions. Such consensus suggests that people’s personal observations tend to be shared by others within their local area.

This strong relationship at the country, community and respondent level reinforces the connection between satisfaction with local conditions and confidence in national institutions.

However, these findings could also imply a less sanguine interpretation. For instance, certain communities may be doing better than others because national institutions are designed to channel resources disproportionately to those communities.

Bottom Line

Global Gallup data show a relationship between people’s confidence in national institutions and satisfaction with the main local conditions that their government is at least partially responsible for. On the whole, when people are satisfied with their local schools, medical facilities, housing, roads, public transportation, and air and water quality, they are more likely to have faith in their broader national institutions.

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For complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review Gallup's Country Data Set details.

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