WASHINGTON, D.C. — Even as the U.S. birth rate has fallen to an all-time low of 1.6 births per woman, Americans continue to say that the ideal family size includes an average of 2.7 children.
In recent decades, the divergence between the ideal and reality has become especially wide as the fertility rate has dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain the U.S. population size. This suggests that the decline in births may be driven more by practical challenges that make it harder for people to have as many children as they want, rather than by changing attitudes about the ideal family size.
In 1936, when Gallup first measured preferred family size, the average ideal number of children was 3.6. Preferences were relatively steady through 1967, with the average fluctuating from 3.3 to 3.6 children. By 1973, however, Americans’ ideal family size dropped below 3.0 children, to 2.8 for the first time. This likely reflected shifting cultural norms and heightened concern about a global population explosion after the bestselling book The Population Bomb was published in 1968.
Americans’ preferences for families of three or more children continued to fall throughout the 1970s and 1980s, which included three U.S. recessions. The average has since fluctuated between 2.4 and 2.7 but has held at 2.7 in the past three readings, in 2018, 2023 and now.
Plurality of Americans Still Say Two Children Is Ideal
The latest average, from a July 7-21 poll, reflects more than four in five Americans saying at least two children is the ideal number for a family. This includes 40% who think having two children is optimal, while 27% prefer three children, 11% think four is best, and 4% say having five or more children is ideal. At the other end of the spectrum, 4% of U.S. adults believe having one child is ideal, while 2% say the ideal family does not include any children.
Whereas majorities of U.S. adults preferred having at least three children through 1970, less than half have favored that arrangement since. However, after sinking below 30% in 1986 and 1990, and remaining mostly below 40% through 2013, Americans’ belief that the ideal family size includes three or more children has been consistently above 40% in recent years. The latest reading is the second consecutive time that preferences for one or two children (44%) are statistically tied with preferences for three or more (42%).
Ideal Family Size Preferences Differ Among Subgroups
Men, U.S. adults who attend religious services weekly or monthly, Republicans, people of color, and men under age 50 are significantly more likely than their counterparts to prefer three or more children. Meanwhile, adults who rarely or never attend religious services, Democrats, White people, adults under age 30, and women under age 50 are significantly more likely than their counterparts to say one or two children is ideal.
Several other subgroups, including political independents, adults aged 30 and older, and men and women aged 50 and older, are divided in their views of whether having one or two children or having three or more is ideal.
Compared with 2011, when a majority of Americans (57%) said one or two children was ideal, nearly all of these subgroups have seen at least a slight increase in preferences for three or more children, averaging nine percentage points among all U.S. adults. This includes double-digit shifts among men of all ages, nearly weekly or monthly churchgoers, Republicans, independents, and adults aged 30 to 49 and 50 to 64.
Although the subject of boosting the fertility rate has been recently discussed by some prominent Republican leaders, including President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, Republicans’ views of the ideal number of children have not changed significantly since the prior reading in 2023.
Implications
Gallup has been measuring Americans’ opinions of the ideal family size periodically for almost 90 years. After falling steeply in the second half of the 20th century in parallel with the U.S. birth rate, Americans’ preferred family size has now stabilized at a level that well exceeds the actual rate. The persistence of this gap suggests economic and cultural headwinds may be at work. High costs for housing, child care, healthcare and higher education, coupled with delayed marriage and parenthood, birth control and declining religiosity, are likely among the factors holding down birth rates despite a continued preference for more children.
These practical factors shape not only individual lives but also the nation’s demographic destiny. The fact that certain groups, including men, Republicans and more religious adults, lean toward larger families highlights how ideas about family size reflect broader cultural forces, not just individual choices.
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