WASHINGTON, D.C. — Desire to migrate is declining worldwide, but Gallup’s latest update on its Potential Net Migration Index (PNMI) shows that adult populations would continue to grow in Northern America, Europe, and Australia and New Zealand if everyone who said they wanted to move were able to do so.
At the same time, populations in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and parts of Asia would shrink, while populations in the Middle East and North Africa would remain roughly unchanged.
With a few exceptions, overall patterns remain similar to what they were a decade ago during the European migrant crisis. EU and non-EU countries in Europe are more attractive than they were then. And in the Middle East and North Africa, which was the primary source of migration flows to Europe, the index is now less negative than it was then, primarily because fewer in the region now want to leave.
Gallup’s PNMI is calculated as the estimated number of adults who say they would like to move permanently out of a country if they had the opportunity, minus the estimated number who say they would like to move into it, expressed as a proportion of the total adult population. Higher positive scores indicate larger potential net population gains from migration.
The latest results are based on surveys conducted in 149 countries and areas between 2023 and 2025, with over 430,000 interviews. Results from 2015 to 2017 are based on surveys in 152 countries and interviews with over 450,000 adults.
These estimates matter because, although they do not predict migration patterns, they show how migration could reshape countries’ populations if current preferences were realized. They are indicative of potential changes in population size and differences in countries’ ability to attract and retain people, including younger and more educated adults.
Behind Europe’s Growing Popularity
Across the European Union, PNMI scores increased significantly in Germany, which received many migrants and refugees during Europe’s migration crisis, and in several other countries. Ireland joined the group of countries with the highest potential increases in the bloc, with a score of +138%.
Italy, which remains a primary Mediterranean entry point to Europe, saw its PNMI score move from negative territory a decade ago (-8%) to positive territory today (+25%). Croatia and Slovenia also moved to the plus side on the index. This means that more people now say they would move to these countries than leave them, a reversal from a decade ago.
Elsewhere in the EU, Hungary and the Czech Republic, which were already in negative territory a decade ago, became less attractive. Hungary dropped from -16% to -24%, and the Czech Republic declined from -5% to -11%.
United States’ Losses and Canada’s Gains
Northern America’s score is unchanged from a decade ago (+58% in the most recent measure vs. +57%). But the underlying pattern has shifted. While the combined PNMI score for the U.S. and Canada has changed little over the past decade, this reflects offsetting trends: Canada’s score increased 78 points to +225%, while the U.S. score declined nine points to 37%.
Because the index is expressed as a proportion of each country’s population, these differences reflect relative demand rather than country size.
This shift aligns with Gallup’s recent finding that the percentage of potential migrants naming the U.S. as their preferred destination has fallen to a record low of 15%, while Canada remains second globally at 9%. U.S. net international migration fell by more than half between 2024 and 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The composition of these gains also differs. Canada ranks among the countries with the potentially highest gains among highly educated adults, while the United States shows relatively stronger potential gains among younger populations. Neither of these countries saw statistically significant increases in potential gains among those with a college education. However, between the two periods, Canada registered one of the largest increases in the world on potential gains among young people.
These differences demonstrate the variation in who countries are attracting, which can be examined more closely using Gallup’s Potential Net Youth Gain Index and Potential Net Brain Gain Index.
Who Stands to Gain, and Lose, Young and Educated People
Gallup calculates a Potential Net Youth Gain Index and a Potential Net Brain Gain Index using the same approach as the overall PNMI.
The Potential Net Brain Gain Index is calculated as the estimated number of adults with a four-year college degree or higher who say they would like to move permanently out of a country if they had the opportunity, minus the estimated number who say they would like to move into it. The Potential Net Youth Gain Index is calculated in the same way for adults aged 15 to 29. Both are expressed as a proportion of their respective populations.
Several countries stand out for their potential to attract college-educated individuals. Iceland would see the largest relative increase by a wide margin, followed by New Zealand and Denmark. Other countries that would see their college-educated populations boom include Spain, Finland, Australia and Canada, as well as Portugal and Norway.
Eswatini also appears among the countries with the largest potential increases, reflecting strong potential gains relative to the size of its college-educated population, which is smaller than in many higher-income countries.
At the other end of the index, the largest potential losses of college-educated populations are found in countries such as Honduras, Ghana and Togo. In some cases, these losses amount to roughly half of a country’s college-educated population, which is often small to begin with.
Countries with potential gains in college-educated populations are likely to see more competitive workforces, while those with losses could see gaps widen over time.
Potential Youth Gains and Losses
Gallup’s Potential Net Youth Gain Index shows that while 106 countries would see declines in their populations aged 15 to 29, 15 would see their youth populations cut by at least 50%.
The largest potential losses are generally clustered in countries across sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and Latin America, with Sierra Leone (-81%), Liberia (-79%) and Ghana (-67%) facing the largest potential declines.
By contrast, 32 countries would see their young populations increase by at least 75%, many of them among the fastest-aging countries in the world.
The largest gains are found in Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland and Iceland, where youth populations would increase by at least 500%. Other aging countries, including the U.S. (+87%) and Japan (+76%), would also see increases in their youth populations.
Changes on the Potential Net Youth Gain Index are more widespread, with 59 countries showing statistically significant change in 2023-2025.
These patterns could potentially spell a redistribution of younger populations across countries, with potential implications for the size and growth of future workforces. The OECD projects that GDP per capita growth across its member countries will slow by roughly 14% by 2060, driven in part by aging populations.
Bottom Line
International migration could potentially help offset population aging and shrinking workforces in some countries. Gallup’s PNMI does not predict whether these shifts will occur, but it shows where the interest exists and where it does not. As migration desire shifts globally, so too does the pool of people countries can realistically attract.
The data reflect not only potential changes in population size but also differences in which countries stand to gain or lose human capital, including the educated workers and young people who shape long-term economic trajectories.
Andrew Dugan and Michelle Chau contributed to this analysis.
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