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Trump's Positive Image Fades, Carson's Up

Trump's Positive Image Fades, Carson's Up

Donald Trump's image among Republicans continues to fade. The trend in the two-week rolling average shows his net favorable rating among Republicans at +21, his lowest rating since his star began to ascend after the first GOP debate.

Donald Trump

Although we focus on two-week rolling averages in order to provide larger sample sizes and more stable estimates, we can look at the data for the seven days -- Sept. 17-23 -- since the Sept. 16 GOP debate. Trump's net favorable rating among Republicans for this time period is down substantially, to +13. If that trend continues, it would be his lowest net favorable rating among Republicans since we began tracking his image.


On the other hand, Ben Carson's image among Republicans is strengthening. His two-week average through Sept. 23 is +58, by far the highest of any Republican candidate. Carson's name identification among Republicans has risen remarkably, from as low as 47% of Republicans who knew enough about him to rate him back in late July, to 74% today.

Ben Carson

For the seven days since the Sept. 16 debate, Carson's average net favorable image is even higher at +63. This period of time includes several days since his Meet the Press appearance on Sunday, Sept. 20. It is too soon to measure the long-term impact of his controversial comments on that program about voting for a Muslim for president, but the data show no evidence of a downturn so far.

What of Jeb Bush? His very weak image among Republicans does not show signs of turning around. His two-week net favorable rating is +15, and in the seven days since the debate, it is a little lower still at +13.

Jeb Bush

Carly Fiorina's name identification has now risen from as low as 35% in late July/early August to 60% among Republicans over the last two weeks. Her two-week net favorable rating is +34. The cause for concern for Fiorina is that her image has not improved from where it was just after the first debate, even as she has become more familiar to Republicans.

Carly Fiorina

The data for the last seven days -- since the Sept. 16 debate -- is a little better for Fiorina, however. Her familiarity is up to 66% and her net favorable rating has edged up to +38, providing some indication that her image may begin picking up again.

Here's the latest update for all of the major Republican candidates for the two weeks spanning Sept. 10-23.

GOP Candidates' Familiarity and Image Among GOPers

After Carson, the candidates with the most positive images among Republicans are Marco Rubio, Fiorina, Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee.


Frank Newport, Ph.D., is a Gallup Senior Scientist. He is the author of Polling Matters: Why Leaders Must Listen to the Wisdom of the People and God Is Alive and Well. Twitter: @Frank_Newport

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