Africans Divided on Russia's Leadership Before Ukraine War

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- While most Western countries have strongly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the rest of the world hasn't reacted in the same way.

Responses in Africa, for example, have ranged from solidly supporting Ukraine to condemning NATO's response. Gallup surveys in Africa show these actions largely follow a general divide in support for Russia's leadership across the continent before the Ukraine crisis.

African Approval of Russia Remains Low, but Higher Than Global Average

Overall, median approval of Russia's leadership stood at 42% across Africa in 2021, which is lower than the approval ratings of the leadership of the U.S. (60%), China (52%) and Germany (49%).

However, approval of Russia's leadership remains consistently higher in Africa than the global median of 33%. Africans have held a more positive view of Russia for some time, reaching a peak of 57% approval in 2011, before opinions started declining over the past decade.

Russian Leadership Most Popular in West Africa

Support for Russian leadership is most strongly concentrated in West Africa, particularly in Mali, where 84% of residents approve. Although Mali has recently received renewed Russian interest, including the arrival of Russian mercenaries to replace outgoing French forces at the behest of the Malian government, Malian support of Russia has been among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade.

Substantial majorities in fellow West African nations, including Ivory Coast, Guinea and Gabon, also express support for Russia.

	Approve	Disapprove	Don't know/Refused	Change, 2020-2021
	%	%	%	pct. pts.
Mali	84	8	8	+25
Ivory Coast	71	20	9	+17
Guinea	67	11	21	-5
Gabon	64	21	15	+13
Togo	61	12	27	*
Cameroon	60	21	19	-1
Republic of the Congo	54	25	21	+1
Nigeria	53	13	35	+13
Burkina Faso	50	15	35	-3
Sierra Leone	50	9	41	*
Ghana	49	12	39	+10
Benin	38	21	41	+2
Senegal	36	14	50	+5
* Not asked in 2020
Gallup

However, residents of Eastern and Southern African nations are more restrained. While a higher percentage of their populations express support for Russian leadership compared with the global average, this opinion is held by a minority of residents living in the East and South. Large proportions of the population in these nations are also unsure about their views on Russia, particularly in Zambia, where 66% of residents didn't know if they approved or disapproved of Russian leadership in 2021.

	Approve	Disapprove	Don't know/Refused	Change, 2020-2021
	%	%	%	pct. pts.
Kenya	45	37	19	0
Mauritius	43	35	22	-4
Malawi	42	33	25	*
Mozambique	41	27	32	*
Namibia	40	46	14	+5
Zimbabwe	39	35	26	+8
Uganda	37	39	24	+1
Tanzania	32	34	34	-1
South Africa	30	26	44	-4
Zambia	22	12	66	-20
* Not asked in 2020
Gallup

While reasons for this support vary, much of it may be tied to recent Russian economic and diplomatic outreaches to the continent. Russian trade has become increasingly enmeshed in Africa over the past two decades, not only in terms of natural resources like wheat, oil and gas, but in military equipment and support as well.

Russia is the largest provider of military arms to sub-Saharan Africa, with exports increasing 23% over the past four years. Some of this has come in the form of direct action as well, with Russian private military contractors deploying to 19 African nations since 2014.

Long-standing Russian history in the region may also play a role in the complex relationships that exist today. The former Soviet Union was a large supporter of anticolonial movements during the Cold War, including anti-apartheid activists in South Africa. This has led to a dichotomy whereby South African President Cyril Ramaphosa blames NATO for the war in Ukraine, yet just 30% of South Africans approve of Russia's leadership.

Most Severe Impacts Are Likely to Come

While the initial fallout from economic sanctions and disruptions in supply chains have already been felt around the world, more substantial effects are likely to emerge in the coming months. Even though the conflict in Ukraine is a world away, sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, is vulnerable to disruptions in food supplies, with a large proportion of the population experiencing food insecurity.

Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of global wheat supplies, with many nations in Africa importing a significant amount from the two countries. Substantial majorities in many African countries report not having enough money to buy food in the past 12 months. The Southern African nations of Zimbabwe and Zambia face an acute risk, with close to four in five residents having difficulty affording food in 2021.

	Yes	No
	%	%
Zimbabwe	80	20
Zambia	79	21
Sierra Leone	77	22
Gabon	76	24
Benin	74	26
Cameroon	74	26
Malawi	73	27
Nigeria	71	28
Republic of the Congo	69	29
Kenya	69	31
Guinea	68	31
Namibia	66	34
Uganda	66	34
Ivory Coast	65	35
Togo	63	37
Ghana	61	39
Mozambique	60	37
Mali	57	42
Senegal	54	44
Tanzania	54	45
Burkina Faso	53	47
South Africa	48	51
Mauritius	31	69
Gallup, 2021

Implications

The ongoing conflict in Europe has already produced economic and diplomatic shocks that are being felt worldwide. After these initial disruptions, the full effect of sanctions and diminished exports from both Ukraine and Russia will begin to impact many nations globally, especially those in Africa. Under these additional strains, it remains to be seen what effect the ongoing crisis will have on Africans' views of Russia's leadership.

Read Gallup's latest Rating World Leaders report to see how the leadership of Russia, the U.S., Germany and China compare worldwide.

To stay up to date with the latest Gallup News insights and updates, follow us on Twitter.

For complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review Gallup's Country Data Set details.

Learn more about how the Gallup World Poll works.