WASHINGTON, D.C. — The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are in Washington this week, hosting 10,000 economists and policymakers from roughly 190 countries. At the same time, the Semafor World Economy is hosting 400 of the world’s most influential CEOs and thought leaders.
Woodstock for the global economy.
The IMF reported that global gross domestic product finished right at $120 trillion in 2025. Gallup analysts estimate global growth over the next 25 years will average 2.5% annually, with global GDP reaching about $220 trillion by 2050.
This means $100 trillion in new economic energy will rain down across all countries worldwide.
So, who gets the coming $100 trillion?
GDP is roughly the sum of everything the whole world makes and sells in a year. The U.S. owns roughly 26% of global nominal GDP, the EU 18% and China 17%. Together, they represent nearly two-thirds of all the world’s economic energy.
If the United States were a corporation, America, Inc., it would have sales of $30 trillion (GDP), growing at about 2.0% per year, annual losses of $1.8 trillion per year (deficits) and total debt of $38 trillion on the balance sheet.
But these data have limitations. The moment a transaction is recorded, it becomes a trailing indicator. No matter how deeply we analyze economic data, the future isn’t in there.
“After considering all the economic information available, all the leading indicators that you depend on, what do your instincts tell you is coming next?”
That is why we are here.
Global CEOs, economists and journalists, upon returning from first trips to Shanghai in the very early 2000s, were caught up in a worldwide narrative: “China is booming and can do anything, while Americans can’t even build a train that works from Washington to New York.”
Creating an unstoppable bandwagon effect. I was saying it too.
The narrative only hardened in 2010. “China’s economy will overwhelm America's.” Not eclipse but overwhelm America’s.
But it didn’t happen.
The U.S. economy was not routed by China, as literally every thought leader predicted, including every well-meaning U.S., Chinese, EU and world economist.
This was one of the biggest misreads by economists of the past 100 years. Nobody talks about it, but it helps make a case that the future is very hard to predict.
It is important to remember that progress is not linear; it is driven by events. Same for organizations and countries. Turning points are everything when investing and planning.
This is why leading indicators — signals of what comes next — are so critical.
Gallup has found three leading indicators: Gross Domestic Ambition, Gross Domestic Payroll to Population, and Gross Domestic Thriving.
We are committed to reporting these indicators at the annual Semafor event for the next 100 years.
