Before Pandemic, Outbreaks Least of Worries in Western Europe

Before the outbreak of COVID-19, few residents of Western Europe likely ever expected to find themselves at the epicenter of a pandemic. In fact, just a few years ago, their concern about an outbreak of contagious disease took a relative back seat to all other issues Gallup asked them about. In all of the up to 14 countries surveyed in Western Europe in 2016, people at the time saw issues such as violence, terrorism and immigration as much more serious problems for their countries than an outbreak.

	Overall	Highest	Lowest
	%	%	%
Domestic violence	79	Portugal - 98	Germany - 65
Sexual assault	74	Portugal - 95	Finland - 56
Gang violence	68	Portugal - 93	Finland - 35
International terror	65	France - 95	Ireland - 14
Homegrown terror	62	France - 94	Ireland - 14
Current level of immigration	53	Malta - 86	Iceland - 17
Outbreak of a contagious disease	50	Portugal - 84	Iceland - 21
Gallup World Poll, 2016

In 2016, the European migration crisis and several high-profile terrorist attacks in France left those issues more top of mind for Western Europeans than the spread of contagious disease.

But fast forward four years, and today these countries are all experiencing the effects of COVID-19. Regardless of the degree of concern residents expressed in 2016, the reported cases are mounting, especially in France, where there was already substantial concern about an outbreak.

	Outbreak of contagious disease a serious problem in 2016	Current cases of coronavirus in 2020*
	%	#
Portugal	84	112
France	74	4,469
Belgium	53	689
Northern Cyprus	52	21
Netherlands	49	959
Denmark	49	827
Sweden	38	924
Switzerland	33	1,359
Finland	24	210
Iceland	21	138
* Cases as of March 17, 2020
Gallup World Poll, 2016

Older People, Women Saw Greater Threat From Disease Outbreak

Across these countries, certain populations registered a higher degree of concern about the spread of contagious disease. There is a strong relationship between age and the perceived threat from an outbreak of contagious disease. This is especially relevant in Europe, where the proportion of the population 65 and older is substantial and is at greatest risk in the current pandemic. Those aged 65 and older were significantly more likely than people in any other age group to report the outbreak of contagious disease as a serious problem for their countries.

	Serious problem
	%
Age
15-24	47
25-34	45
35-44	45
45-54	50
55-64	54
65+	60
Gallup World Poll, 2016

Women were also significantly more likely than men to report infectious disease outbreaks as a serious problem. However, women were more likely than men in general to worry about all of the issues they were asked about.

Most Educated, Least Concerned

People with the highest reported education were likely to report the lowest level of concern about contagious diseases, with just over a third saying these are a serious problem -- compared with nearly double the percentage of Europeans who had completed elementary education or less. Higher education was also associated with less concern on other issues Gallup asked about. Higher education tends to be associated with younger populations across the countries surveyed.

Bottom Line

Human beings naturally react strongly to the most direct threat. While terrorists killed hundreds of people across European countries in 2016, terrorism was still considered a less serious problem than issues of violence against women -- sexual assault and domestic violence, where substantially more people are injured and killed annually. It is only when people come in contact with a novel disease that the risks of a contagious outbreak are brought front and center as a serious concern. For many in parts of Europe, that time is now, and it may feel like it is too late.

For complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review Gallup's Country Data Set details.